SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring SARS-CoV-2 population exposure. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from raw seroprevalence survey results that account for these sources of spectrum bias. We incorporate data on antibody responses on multiple assays from a post-infection longitudinal cohort, along with epidemic time series to account for the timing of a serosurvey relative to how recently individuals may have been infected. We applied this method to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from five large-scale SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys across different settings and study designs. We identify substantial differences between raw seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of over two-fold in the results of some surveys, and provide a tool for practitioners to generate cumulative incidence estimates with pre-set or custom parameter values. While unprecedented efforts have been launched to generate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates over this past year, interpretation of results from these studies requires properly accounting for both population-level epidemiologic context and individual-level immune dynamics.

Low Prevalence of Interferon-α Autoantibodies in People Experiencing Long COVID Symptoms.

Interferon (IFN)-specific autoantibodies have been implicated in severe COVID-19 and have been proposed as a potential driver of the persistent symptoms characterizing Long COVID, a type of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). We report than only two of 215 SARS-CoV-2 convalescent participants tested over 394 timepoints, including 121 people experiencing Long COVID symptoms, had detectable IFN-α2 antibodies. Both had been hospitalized during the acute phase of the infection. These data suggest that persistent anti-IFN antibodies, although a potential driver of severe COVID-19, are unlikely to contribute to Long COVID symptoms in the post-acute phase of the infection.

Impact of pre-existing chronic viral infection and reactivation on the development of long COVID.

BACKGROUND: The presence and reactivation of chronic viral infections such as Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), cytomegalovirus (CMV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have been proposed as potential contributors to Long COVID (LC), but studies in well-characterized post-acute cohorts of individuals with COVID-19 over a longer time course consistent with current case definitions of LC are limited. METHODS: In a cohort of 280 adults with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, we assessed the presence and types of LC symptoms and prior medical history (including COVID-19 history and HIV status), and performed serological testing for EBV and CMV using a commercial laboratory. We used covariate-adjusted binary logistic regression models to identify independent associations between variables and LC symptoms. RESULTS: We observed that LC symptoms such as fatigue and neurocognitive dysfunction at a median of 4months following initial diagnosis were independently associated with serological evidence suggesting recent EBV reactivation (early antigen-D [EA-D] IgG positivity) or high nuclear antigen (EBNA) IgG levels, but not with ongoing EBV viremia. Serological evidence suggesting recent EBV reactivation (EA-D IgG) was most strongly associated with fatigue (OR 2.12). Underlying HIV infection was also independently associated with neurocognitive LC (OR 2.5). Interestingly, participants who had serologic evidence of prior CMV infection were less likely to develop neurocognitive LC (OR 0.52). CONCLUSION: Overall, these findings suggest differential effects of chronic viral co-infections on the likelihood of developing LC and predicted distinct syndromic patterns. Further assessment during the acute phase of COVID-19 is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Long-term Impact of Infection with Novel Coronavirus (LIINC); NCT04362150FUNDING. This work was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases NIH/NIAID 3R01AI141003-03S1 to TJ Henrich, R01AI158013 to M Gandhi and M Spinelli, K24AI145806 to P Hunt, and by the Zuckerberg San Francisco Hospital Department of Medicine and Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine. MJP is supported on K23 A137522 and received support from the UCSFBay Area Center for AIDS Research (P30-AI027763).

Postacute sequelae and adaptive immune responses in people with HIV recovering from SARS-COV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the long-term clinical and immunologic consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection in people with HIV (PWH). METHODS: We measured SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral and cellular responses in people with and without HIV recovering from COVID-19 ( n  = 39 and n  = 43, respectively) using binding antibody, surrogate virus neutralization, intracellular cytokine staining, and inflammatory marker assays. We identified individuals experiencing postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) and evaluated immunologic parameters. We used linear regression and generalized linear models to examine differences by HIV status in the magnitude of inflammatory and virus-specific antibody and T-cell responses, as well as differences in the prevalence of PASC. RESULTS: Among PWH, we found broadly similar SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody and T-cell responses as compared with a well matched group of HIV-negative individuals. PWH had 70% lower relative levels of SARS-CoV-2-specific memory CD8 + T cells ( P  = 0.007) and 53% higher relative levels of PD-1+ SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 + T cells ( P  = 0.007). Higher CD4 + /CD8 + ratio was associated with lower PD-1 expression on SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8 + T cells (0.34-fold effect, P  = 0.02). HIV status was strongly associated with PASC (odds ratio 4.01, P  = 0.008), and levels of certain inflammatory markers (IL-6, TNF-alpha, and IP-10) were associated with persistent symptoms. CONCLUSION: We identified potentially important differences in SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 + and CD8 + T cells in PWH and HIV-negative participants that might have implications for long-term immunity conferred by natural infection. HIV status strongly predicted the presence of PASC. Larger and more detailed studies of PASC in PWH are urgently needed.

Plasma Markers of Neurologic Injury and Inflammation in People With Self-Reported Neurologic Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The biologic mechanisms underlying neurologic postacute sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (PASC) are incompletely understood. METHODS: We measured markers of neurologic injury (glial fibrillary acidic protein [GFAP], neurofilament light chain [NfL]) and soluble markers of inflammation among a cohort of people with prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at early and late recovery after the initial illness (defined as less than and greater than 90 days, respectively). The primary clinical outcome was the presence of self-reported CNS PASC symptoms during the late recovery time point. We compared fold changes in marker values between those with and without CNS PASC symptoms using linear mixed-effects models and examined relationships between neurologic and immunologic markers using rank linear correlations. RESULTS: Of 121 individuals, 52 reported CNS PASC symptoms. During early recovery, those who went on to report CNS PASC symptoms had elevations in GFAP (1.3-fold higher mean ratio, 95% CI 1.04-1.63, p = 0.02), but not NfL (1.06-fold higher mean ratio, 95% CI 0.89-1.26, p = 0.54). During late recovery, neither GFAP nor NfL levels were elevated among those with CNS PASC symptoms. Although absolute levels of NfL did not differ, those who reported CNS PASC symptoms demonstrated a stronger downward trend over time in comparison with those who did not report CNS PASC symptoms (p = 0.041). Those who went on to report CNS PASC also exhibited elevations in interleukin 6 (48% higher during early recovery and 38% higher during late recovery), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (19% higher during early recovery), and tumor necrosis factor α (19% higher during early recovery and 13% higher during late recovery). GFAP and NfL correlated with levels of several immune activation markers during early recovery; these correlations were attenuated during late recovery. DISCUSSION: Self-reported neurologic symptoms present approximately 4 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection are associated with elevations in markers of neurologic injury and inflammation at earlier time points. Some inflammatory pathways seem to be involved months after acute infection. Additional work will be needed to better characterize these processes and to identify interventions to prevent or treat this condition.

Role of antibodies, inflammatory markers, and echocardiographic findings in postacute cardiopulmonary symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Shortness of breath, chest pain, and palpitations occur as postacute sequelae of COVID-19, but whether symptoms are associated with echocardiographic abnormalities, cardiac biomarkers, or markers of systemic inflammation remains unknown. In a cross-sectional analysis, we assessed symptoms, performed echocardiograms, and measured biomarkers among adults more than 8 weeks after confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We modeled associations between symptoms and baseline characteristics, echocardiographic findings, and biomarkers using logistic regression. We enrolled 102 participants at a median of 7.2 months following COVID-19 onset; 47 individuals reported dyspnea, chest pain, or palpitations. Median age was 52 years, and 41% of participants were women. Female sex, hospitalization, IgG antibody against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain, and C-reactive protein were associated with symptoms. Regarding echocardiographic findings, 4 of 47 participants (9%) with symptoms had pericardial effusions compared with 0 of 55 participants without symptoms; those with effusions had a median of 4 symptoms compared with a median of 1 symptom in those without effusions. There was no strong evidence for a relationship between symptoms and echocardiographic functional parameters or other biomarkers. Among adults more than 8 weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection, SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibodies, markers of inflammation, and, possibly, pericardial effusions are associated with cardiopulmonary symptoms. Investigation into inflammation as a mechanism underlying postacute sequelae of COVID-19 is warranted.

Characterizing the COVID-19 Illness Experience to Inform the Study of Post-acute Sequelae and Recovery.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need to fully understand the impact of variable COVID-19 experiences and the optimal management of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We characterized the variability in the acute illness experience and ongoing recovery process from participants in a COVID-19 recovery cohort study in Northern California in 2020. METHOD: We completed 24 semi-structured in-depth interviews with adults with confirmed positive SARV-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test result, had recovered or were recovering from acute infection, and underwent serial evaluations. We purposefully sampled English- and Spanish-speaking adults with asymptomatic, mild, and severe symptomatic infection, including those who were hospitalized and those with HIV co-infection. We used a thematic analysis to analyze interviews and identify salient themes. RESULTS: After integrating the thematic analysis with clinical data, we identified key themes: (1) across symptom profiles and severity, experiencing COVID-19 was associated with psychological distress; (2) symptomatic infection carried uncertainty in symptom presentation and ongoing recovery (e.g., long COVID); and (3) health information-seeking behavior was facilitated by access to medical care and uncertainty with the recovery process. CONCLUSION: Our data informs the emerging field of "long COVID" research and shows a need to provide information and continuous support to persons with post-acute sequelae to ensure they feel secure along the path to recovery.

Persistence, Magnitude, and Patterns of Postacute Symptoms and Quality of Life Following Onset of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Cohort Description and Approaches for Measurement.

BACKGROUND: There is mounting evidence for the presence of postacute sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (PASC), but there is limited information on the spectrum, magnitude, duration, and patterns of these sequelae as well as their influence on quality of life. METHODS: We assembled a cohort of adults with a documented history of SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity at ≥2 weeks past onset of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms or, if asymptomatic, first positive test. At 4-month intervals, we queried physical and mental health symptoms and quality of life. RESULTS: Of the first 179 participants enrolled, 10 were asymptomatic during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, 125 were symptomatic but not hospitalized, and 44 were symptomatic and hospitalized. During the postacute phase, fatigue, shortness of breath, concentration problems, headaches, trouble sleeping, and anosmia/dysgeusia were most common through 8 months of observation. Symptoms were typically at least somewhat bothersome and sometimes exhibited a waxing-and-waning course. Some participants experienced symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress, as well as difficulties with performance of usual activities. The median visual analogue scale rating of general health was lower at 4 and 8 months compared with pre-COVID-19. Two clusters of symptom domains were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Many participants report bothersome symptoms following onset of COVID-19 with variable patterns of persistence and impact on quality of life. The substantial variability suggests the existence of multiple subphenotypes of PASC. A rigorous approach to the prospective measurement of symptoms and functional manifestations sets the stage for the next phase of research focusing on the pathophysiologic causes of the various subgroups of PASC.

Persistence, Magnitude and Patterns of Post-acute Symptoms and Quality of Life Following Onset of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Cohort Description and Approaches for Measurement

BACKGROUND There is mounting evidence for the presence of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), but there is limited information on the spectrum, magnitude, duration, and patterns of these sequelae as well as their influence on quality of life. METHODS We assembled a cohort of adults with documented history of SARS-CoV-2 RNA-positivity who were ≥ 2 weeks past onset of COVID-19 symptoms or, if asymptomatic, first positive test. At 4-month intervals, we queried physical and mental health symptoms and quality of life. RESULTS Of the first 179 participants enrolled, 10 were asymptomatic during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, 125 symptomatic but not hospitalized, and 44 symptomatic and hospitalized. During the post-acute phase, fatigue, shortness of breath, concentration problems, headaches, trouble sleeping and anosmia/dysgeusia were most common through 8 months of observation. Symptoms were typically at least somewhat bothersome and sometimes exhibited a waxing-and-waning course. Some participants experienced symptoms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress, as well as difficulties with performance of usual activities. The median visual analogue scale rating of general health was lower at 4 and 8 months compared to pre-COVID-19. Two clusters of symptom domains were identified. CONCLUSION Many participants report bothersome symptoms following onset of COVID-19 with variable patterns of persistence and impact on quality of life. The substantial variability suggests the existence of multiple sub-phenotypes of PASC. A rigorous approach to the prospective measurement of symptoms and functional manifestations sets the stage for the next phase of research focusing on the pathophysiologic causes of the various sub-groups of PASC.

Markers of Immune Activation and Inflammation in Individuals With Postacute Sequelae of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: The biological processes associated with postacute sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (PASC) are unknown. METHODS: We measured soluble markers of inflammation in a SARS-CoV-2 recovery cohort at early (<90 days) and late (>90 days) timepoints. We defined PASC as the presence of 1 or more coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-attributed symptoms beyond 90 days. We compared fold-changes in marker values between those with and without PASC using mixed-effects models with terms for PASC and early and late recovery time periods. RESULTS: During early recovery, those who went on to develop PASC generally had higher levels of cytokine biomarkers including tumor necrosis factor-α (1.14-fold higher mean ratio [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.01-1.28]; P = .028) and interferon-γ-induced protein 10 (1.28-fold higher mean ratio [95% CI, 1.01-1.62]; P = .038). Among those with PASC, there was a trend toward higher interleukin 6 levels during early recovery (1.29-fold higher mean ratio [95% CI, .98-1.70]; P = .07), which became more pronounced in late recovery (1.44-fold higher mean ratio [95% CI, 1.11-1.86]; P < .001). These differences were more pronounced among those with a greater number of PASC symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent immune activation may be associated with ongoing symptoms following COVID-19. Further characterization of these processes might identify therapeutic targets for those experiencing PASC.

Long-term SARS-CoV-2-specific immune and inflammatory responses in individuals recovering from COVID-19 with and without post-acute symptoms.

We describe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific T cell responses, soluble markers of inflammation, and antibody levels and neutralization capacity longitudinally in 70 individuals with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants represent a spectrum of illness and recovery, including some with persistent viral shedding in saliva and many experiencing post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). T cell responses remain stable for up to 9 months. Whereas the magnitude of early CD4+ T cell immune responses correlates with severity of initial infection, pre-existing lung disease is independently associated with higher long-term SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T cell responses. Among participants with PASC 4 months following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptom onset, we observe a lower frequency of CD8+ T cells expressing CD107a, a marker of degranulation, in response to Nucleocapsid (N) peptide pool stimulation, and a more rapid decline in the frequency of N-specific interferon-γ-producing CD8+ T cells. Neutralizing antibody levels strongly correlate with SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cell responses.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody magnitude and detectability are driven by disease severity, timing, and assay.

Interpretation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) serosurveillance studies is limited by poorly defined performance of antibody assays over time in individuals with different clinical presentations. We measured antibody responses in plasma samples from 128 individuals over 160 days using 14 assays. We found a consistent and strong effect of disease severity on antibody magnitude, driven by fever, cough, hospitalization, and oxygen requirement. Responses to spike protein versus nucleocapsid had consistently higher correlation with neutralization. Assays varied substantially in sensitivity during early convalescence and time to seroreversion. Variability was dramatic for individuals with mild infection, who had consistently lower antibody titers, with sensitivities at 6 months ranging from 33 to 98% for commercial assays. Thus, the ability to detect previous infection by SARS-CoV-2 is highly dependent on infection severity, timing, and the assay used. These findings have important implications for the design and interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance studies.